The Nashville Predators are off to a better start than expected to begin the 2026-27 season, coming off of a thrilling 5-2 comeback win in Montreal. Since dropping their season opener at home, they are 2-0-1 with their other win coming against the Dallas Stars.
It has been far from pretty all around, but Juuse Saros is a key reason for them holding a winning record right now. He came into the season with doubts, especially related to his workload, yet he has played all four games and looked tremendous in doing so.
On top of that, he has been dealt a poor hand with a leaky defense in front of him, as well as Justus Annunen being unable to contribute while being on IR. It might seem, on the surface, that the Predators should just continue to ride the hot hand, but they must be very careful with his starts if they want him to continue to thrive.
Juuse Saros is bailing out the Nashville Predators despite severe deficiencies
First of all, Saros has posted very respectable base stats to start the season, with a 2.72 goals against average and a .916 save percentage. But when you look at his advanced stats on Moneypuck, you can see just how heavily he is carrying the Predators right now.
As of Thursday night’s games ending, he is one of 28 goaltenders who have played at least three games in the first ten days of the season. He ranks 11th on that list when it comes to goals saved above expected, posting a strong 2.9 in that regard, while ranking first among them in terms of expected goals against, with 13.9.
He is also doing great while facing unblocked shots, with a .958 save percentage in those situations, as well as a .0109 save percentage above expected. He is also posting a .72 goals against average better than expected and a .48 wins above replacement.
Keep in mind that Saros has performed like this through not only playing in all four games, but while being absolutely peppered by the opposition. According to Natural Stat Trick, he has faced the most shots of any goaltender in the league so far this year with 98, while facing the seventh most high danger shots against with 21.
He has gotten almost zero help in front of him, and saves like this one he made in the season opener not only show how badly he is being left out to dry, but also why many still view him as one of the league’s elite goaltenders, despite his numbers dipping over the past few years.
For as strong as he has looked so far, the Predators cannot continue to deploy him like this and expect he will continue to play well. Some deeper numbers regarding how he has fared against high danger chances should warn the Predators to make adjustment soon.
Juuse Saros is not holding up well when facing high volume of high danger chances
As mentioned, Natural Stat Trick shows that Saros is not only facing a lots of shots in general, but a lots of high danger chances, in particular. His numbers are below average in those situations, with a meager .810 save percentage, and a -.32 goals saved above expected.
It is really not a knock on him that he is unable to bail the Predators out when facing as many high danger chances as he is. Most goaltenders, even the best ones in the league, would have trouble shining in that regard, and Saros is simply showing he is human.
This should send a message to Andrew Brunette that the moment Annunen is healthy again, he needs to start in that game. Brunette also needs to not be fooled by how well Saros has played overall in these four games, the starts between Saros and Annunen should still be closely balanced.
It is undeniable that a large part of why Saros’ performance has declined over the past three years is that he has played a lot of games in front of a bad defense. If we are being honest with ourselves, the defense is not going to get much better if any, and we could see him get burnt out again if the Predators are not careful.
Annunen has been on the road trip and has been skating as of Tuesday, so that fortunately indicates that he should be back fairly soon. Even if it does not become a true 50/50 split between the two goaltenders, the Predators have to remember how the past few years, especially last one, have gone, and rely on Annunen so that Saros can stay fresh and effective.