Lingering Questions
The Nashville Predators reach the Thanksgiving holiday draped in uncertainty.
The month of November has been a rough ride for the Nashville Predators. Sitting on a 2-6-2 record for the month has dropped the team to last place in the NHL standings and the temperature reached a boiling point with an embarrassing 8-3 loss at home to a Florida Panthers team missing multiple key players. The veterans expected to carry the Predators roster have underperformed almost across the board, the coaching staff has come under fire for not creating better results, and GM Barry Trotz has become the face of dysfunction across the hockey media landscape. The SDPN out of Toronto basically has a running segment now called “Barry doesn’t know how to GM” and Frank Seravalli has repeatedly described the vibe around the Predators as toxic. Through it all, the tone of the Nashville fanbase has evolved from bewildered to irate. With so much chaos around the team there are questions that stand out.
What gives with Jonathan Marchessault?
While Steven Stamkos has probably taken the most flak for his lack of performance, there really needs to be more conversation about Jonathan Marchessault. In the month of November, Marchessault has one point which came against Calgary on the first day of the month. Looking at the full 19 games this season he has only 4 goals, is sitting at a -14 and has generated less high danger chances than Michael McCarron and Cole Smith. Marchessault has lately been skating on a line with Michaels Bunting and McCarron as rookie Matthew Wood has significantly outperformed him offensively. Something has to change soon and it may most likely result in Barry Trotz having to find a new team for Marchessault.
How long does Andrew Brunette have?
Barry Trotz has continued to stand behind Andrew Brunette as the right coach for the Predators but the results have become impossible to ignore. Being lauded as an offensive guru then having one of the worst offenses in the NHL for a second straight season is a bad look for his job security. And while the performance on the ice rests primarily on the players doing their job, the coaching staff has to make adjustments and create opportunities through scheme. Looking at the analytics, the Predators are middle of the league or worse in almost every team offensive statistic. As a result, the defense and goaltending that was strong to start the season has crumbled to where Nashville is now one of the worst scoring defense teams as well. It bears watching how long Barry Trotz will stick with Brunette if the results do not improve.
Will Nashville embrace the tank?
It got late very early in Nashville. From hoping to prove the expectations wrong almost unprecedented levels of “they are who we thought they were” in less than two months. But this was always a possibility. If Barry Trotz had not signed the Underwhelming Trio then the rebuild would already be in full flight. However the signs are becoming more visible that Nashville will embrace where they are. In just the past two weeks Barry Trotz’s media hits have gone from defending the path and plan analogy to revealing that changes are coming. So long as there isn’t another out of nowhere 18 game point streak that path now leads to another high lottery pick.
Who all will be moved out?
The logical next question is if Barry Trotz can make the best of this situation and utilize the assets he has to be in a place where top end talent can be brought into the organization. Earlier this week, our prospect guru Eric wrote a scathing and accurate analysis of Nashville’s approach to finding and developing talent.
In short, almost nobody should be truly off the table. The obvious trades are Erik Haula and Michael Bunting but they are unlikely to net big returns. Ryan O’Reilly might have the most value given his pedigree and very manageable contract but Trotz has said repeatedly that O’Reilly will have a say in where he goes. There have also started to be rumblings that Barry Trotz could be willing to move younger players on the NHL roster like Luke Evangelista if the price is right. Then the big question becomes if a new home can be found for any of the veteran players with trade protection. Steven Stamkos has the least term remaining but the highest salary. Jonathan Marchessault might be the most “change of scenery” candidate. And for any number of reasons Brady Skjei just hasn’t worked in Nashville though his contract is likely untradeable without a massive sweetener attached. The opportunities are there for Barry Trotz to move the Predators rebuild forward quickly but it will take creativity and the will to make some hard decisions.
Statistics courtesy of NHL.com and Natural Stat Trick
