Nashville Predators Trade Tiers
Who the Predators are most likely to move by the 2026 trade deadline
With the holiday roster freeze in the rearview and a few short weeks until the Olympic break, it is a very interesting time for the Nashville Predators. Since Thanksgiving they have been one of the hottest teams in the NHL, winning 11 of 16 games and climbing from the basement of the league to creeping up on the Wild Card like Jason Momoa on Henry Cavill at a red carpet event. That fact breeds either hope or terror depending on your personal opinion on what should come next in Nashville. Regardless of what happens in the standings, it is almost certain that more roster changes are coming, it is just the extent of those changes that is a complete unknown. So let’s take a look at the possibilities for who GM Barry Trotz could look to move and how likely they are to happen.
(Author’s note: percentages are purely my own speculation)
Tier 1 - It’s a Fact(or) of Life
The first tier is reserved for Ryan O’Reilly. He has been so good for the Predators and has turned up his game even more in this recent run of success. O’Reilly does everything. He centers the top line and top power play, kills penalties, wins crucial faceoffs and provides invaluable leadership. It should be no surprise that across the forward group everyone wants to be on his line.
But that also means O’Reilly has significant value across the league. What contending team doesn’t want a player like him for not one but two playoff runs? Through this first half of the season various NHL insiders have linked interest in O’Reilly to New Jersey, Montreal, Dallas and others. Not to mention O’Reilly’s contract is eminently affordable and does not carry any trade protection (outside of Trotz’s verbal agreements). It is a tempting prospect for Nashville as the acquisition cost would be very high and likely includes multiple premium assets. The other element is that O’Reilly has been vocal (publicly at least) about wanting to stay in Nashville and see it through. Barry Trotz will have to weigh this against all the positives I mentioned before and the continued impact Ryan O’Reilly could have on the prospect class.
Likelihood of Trade: 60%
Tier 2 - This was the plan all along
When Michael Bunting and Erik Haula were acquired via trade, we all knew this was the likely eventuality. They are both veteran players [now] on expiring contracts at reasonable salaries. So more than likely they would not be retained past this season as Barry Trotz continues to open NHL roster spots for the ascending prospects. They both utilize a “playoff ready” game in terms of effort, physicality and grit which are always in demand for playoff contenders. And even better, they are both producing at a 0.50 points per game pace. While the returns won’t match those of higher end players, they will both add more assets into the transitional cupboard.
Likelihood of Trade: 95%
Tier 3 - It’s just time to break up
Not every relationship works out. It doesn’t have to be anyone’s fault as long as the parties don’t try to drag it out and force something that isn’t there. This is the Predators and Jonathan Marchessault. We all thought the fit (a gritty and skilled forward in an organization renowned for its gritty forwards) was obvious but the stylistic blend just hasn’t worked. As a multiple time 30-goal and one time 40-goal scorer plus being a playoff MVP winner, Marchessault still carries plenty of value around the league. Rising playoff contenders like Montreal may place extra stock in the fact that Marchessault has 3 more years as opposed to a pure rental. The challenge, of course, is that Marchessault also carries a full no movement clause so he is in control of his own destiny and his salary $5.75M annually can be a tough pill for teams to swallow, even with a rising salary cap. However if the NHL insiders are correct then he may be open to the change of scenery if a deal can be made.
Likelihood of Trade: 45%
Tier 4 - It will hurt but the return might be too good to pass up
After Michael Bunting and Eric Haula there are a few other pending unrestricted free agents that will likely be attractive to contending teams. Each of Michael McCarron, Cole Smith and Nick Blankenburg fill important roles for the Predators, are favorites in the room and are all age 30 or younger. McCarron and Smith are two of Nashville’s most effective penalty killing forwards and help set the tone in terms of physicality and effort. Blankenburg continues to be a tremendous story of resilience as he has worked his way to a full-time role generating offense from Nashville’s 3rd defensive pair and 2nd power play unit. In a perfect world these are players you keep for a contending team however Nashville is not there yet. And by that same logic they will all have value to contending teams. While I am positive Barry Trotz would be happy to keep any of these players around longer, the offers from other teams may just be too good to ignore.
Likelihood of Trade: One player - 75%, More than one - 45%
Tier 5 - Part of the solution
And now we get to the Steven Stamkos portion of the program. His slow start seemed to ensure that Barry Trotz would find a way to get him out of Nashville, and maybe even at a discount given Stamkos’ $8M annual contract with two years left and full no movement clause. Through it all Stamkos remained steady that he wanted to be in Nashville and part of the solution regardless of the rumors, and there have been a lot.
Then the month of December hit and Stamkos went volcanic. Nineteen points in sixteen games later and similar to Ryan O’Reilly it has become a question if Stamkos brings too much to the table to be moved. Like O’Reilly he is a former captain, Stanley Cup winner, future hall of famer and locker room leader. So now the question becomes if a contending team can make an offer enticing enough to both convince Barry Trotz to approach Stamkos about waiving his movement clause and Stamkos to be willing to move. If Stamkos can keep up anything near this pace it is likely Trotz sees him as a mentor to the younger forwards, especially if he decides to make the easier trade with O’Reilly.
Likelihood of Trade: 25% - but the most subject to change of anyone
To say that Barry Trotz has a lot of decisions to make would be a massive understatement. There are a lot of options and possibilities to work through and keeping his plan moving forward has to be at the center of it. Even if the Predators continue winning and push into a playoff spot, it cannot replace the need to continue the build towards the future core. How Barry Trotz manages the next 2+ months may just define his tenure as Nashville Predators general manager.
Statistics and contract information courtesy of the NHL and PuckPedia
