Nashville's Starts: It's Not Been Great But It May Be Getting Better
The Predators have trailed first in more games than any other team this season, but they are finding ways to turn tough starts into more wins.
January is the start of a new calendar year and a focus on new personal goals. Of course when it comes to the NHL season, January is the midpoint when lessons from the past 41 games help frame a team’s plan moving forward. As the Predators attempt to claw their way back into a wildcard spot, there are several areas for improvement to tackle in the second half of the season.
One of the interesting phenomenons of the first half of the 2025-26 season has been Nashville’s starts. In their first 41 games played, the Predators have given up the first goal of the game 28 times - the most of any team in the league. In those games, the Predators record is 10-16-2.
Let’s compare that to last season. At the 41 game mark, the Predators had given up the first goal 20 times. In total last season, Nashville gave up the first goal of the game in 46 of their 82 games (56%) and went 12-30-4 in those 46 games. The Predators had a record of 16-15-5 when they got on the board first last season.
Nashville has scored first just 13 times this season, but worth noting is how those games turned out. When the Predators score that first goal of the game, they are a very respectable 9-2-2.
Growth in this area has not been linear for the Preds. They are giving up more first goals this season, but the results are beginning to improve.
In their last six games, NSH has had to come from behind after giving up that important first goal. This matches a streak from November in which Nashville’s opponents scored first in six consecutive games. It’s not a streak you want as a team, but the Preds are showing improvement under those circumstances. In November Nashville went 1-5 in that six game stretch. Currently, the Predators are 4-2 after giving up the first goal of the game.
Another “first goals of the game” stat of note is how quickly the Predators have given up some of those first goals. In eleven of their 41 games played, the Predators gave up a goal in the first four minutes of the game. The average time of that goal in those eleven games was 2:04.
In contrast, only twice so far this season have the Preds scored a quick goal to start the game - once against the Flyers (at 1:44) in a loss in early November and again in mid Decemeber (at :27) against the St Louis Blues in a 5-2 win.
Giving up early first period goals doesn’t often bode well for the Predators. In the eleven games in which they’ve allowed a goal in the first four minutes, Nashville has a 3-8 record. They have been outscored 44-24 overall in those “opponent early goal” games.
Giving up early goals is not something Andrew Brunette is thrilled with. When asked about quick goals against, Nashville’s head coach took a very “Walt Disney Encanto” philosophy - Bruno doesn’t like to talk about it.
“Those are tough,” he said of early goals against. “I think maybe I should stop talking about them. Maybe it will stop happening. It seems like every time you bring it up, make sure we get off to a good start, that happens.”
“I should stop talking about it.”
While avoidance is one way to handle this particular hitch in the Predators giddy up, there are some positive signs midway through the season. Nashville is winning more games after giving up the first goal as compared to last season.
Giving up the first goal isn’t great, but the Predators are getting better at finding ways to dig out of a deficit and win games. Last season, the Predators won just 15% of the games in which they gave up the first goal. This season, they are winning 36% of the games in which they start out down one. They rank 13th in the league in win percentage when trailing first.
After the Dec 20 win against the Toronto Maple Leafs - a game in which the Preds gave up a quick goal just 1:32 in - Brunette talked about the team getting more comfortable being uncomfortable.
“I think our team’s grown. We’ve been uncomfortable a lot this year in a lot of different hockey games. We’ve been here a million times and we’re starting to understand that. We’re starting to stick with it. Now we’re getting the results,” Brunette said.
Familiarity with adversity may be making the team more resilient.
When the Predators found themselves down 2-0 midway through the first period on December 31 against the Vegas Golden Knights, there was no quit. The Preds rallied to a 4-2 win.
Brunette credits some of that improvement to team chemistry.
“I think we are an extremely close, tight group,” Brunette said after the win.
“We’re getting tighter every game. And you get wins like this, they’re just going to build that tightness.”
That’s not to say that the team is strictly relying on vibes to improve their starts.
“We’ve got to fix the starts,” Stamkos said frankly after the Vegas game. “That’s something that’s been a little concerning.”
Stamkos credited special teams and solid goaltending for helping the team dig out of that two goal deficit.
The starts are a legitimate concern for the Predators. The new calendar year will be a good opportunity for Nashville to clean up their game early and get on the board first more often. They’ll focus on doing that tomorrow night against the Edmonton Oilers in their final road game of this seven game road trip.
AK, definitely appreciative of your analysis---it's the kind of in-depth approach that I appreciate when talking about the Preds (and the NHL in general). I'll say as far as your points regarding the Predators and giving up the first goal---it is (duh) a massive problem and with the Oilers game it kind of came to a breaking point. Edmonton's had it's own troubles but when you have quite literally one of the best, if not the best player in the game and you let him enter the o-zone (with the puck mind you--and that is what is truly special about Connor McDavid his ability to process and wreck havoc at top end speed while carrying the puck---just dynamic) without any kind of resistance you get exactly what we saw. If anything you have to force him to the perimeter but here's the rub--this Nashville team still has massive issues on defense. I'm still very critical of Brady Skjei (and this I feel doesn't get brought up enough all the fans jump on Stamkos and Marchy). Skjei is a -13 this year! Last year was last year--but it's extremely troubling that when he was signed he was billed as a good 2 way defenseman that could contribute a modest amount on the blue line offensively (DEFENSE is supposed to be his calling card) but between the lines here he still looks lost on this team--his body language on the ice speaks to a player that is still not comfortable in his role in this system of Andrew Brunette. I like Brady as a player and was about as excited with his signing as anyone--but he still is routinely making mistakes that cost the team (had a turnover that cost us against Calgary). It's all to often that he is caught flat footed in the defensive zone or misreads where he's supposed to be (I've lost count of how many times he's been burned on an odd man rush)---and it's reflective in how we give up goals. As the great Vince Lombardi once said "What the heck is going on here?" Brady was good--solid with Carolina and the Rangers but his play this year has been extremely disappointing. How do elite level teams like Florida and Colorado combat McDavid? Well if you are like Florida you have big bruising forwards ala Tkachuk and Sam Bennett when it's prohibitive for McDavid to enter in freely at top speed. We don't have that kind of personnel but MAYBE in the future we will. This first goal trend I fear is just a feature of this personnel--not a bug---and just speaks to how this team is currently constructed (which is a whole other ball of wax, lol).
I sure miss you on LOP and the Subtext insider group. I hope all is going well with your family. With our interactions on everything from hockey to musical theater, I came to think of you as a friend, and I miss the interaction. I refuse to return to the Nazi dominant Twitter, though. Let's hope the Preds can solve this first goal thing!